A prominent Russian activist has issued a stark warning about the impending demise of Vladimir Putin's authoritarian rule. Roman Popkov, the former leader of the anti-Putin National Bolshevik Party, predicts that the Russian president's "long reign of terror" will culminate in "great turbulence" and "revolutionary change."
Popkov, now 45 years old, has been a vocal critic of the Kremlin for years, long before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He organized numerous protests against Putin's regime and has even served time in jail for his political activism. Today, Popkov is one of the leaders of Rospartisan, a group of anti-Putin dissidents conducting sabotage operations within Russia.
Despite the Russian government's attempts to crack down on opposition, Popkov argues that Putin's grip on power is growing more tenuous by the day. "The country is only being held together through police and administrative coercion," he said "In effect, Russia has no functioning political or social institutions."
Drawing parallels to the fall of the Soviet Union, Popkov believes that totalitarian regimes in Russia tend to collapse from within. "Revolution is already on our minds," he said. "There is a need for revolution as a fundamental breakdown of the system, as a radical transformation."
Popkov pointed to the "long reign of Brezhnev" and the "mediocre bloody war" in Afghanistan as precursors to the Soviet Union's eventual collapse. He warned that Putin is following a similar trajectory, with the current war in Ukraine serving as a potential catalyst for the downfall of his regime.
"We've already had the long reign of Brezhnev," Popkov said. "And in the end, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the ideology." He believes the same fate awaits Putin, whose iron-fisted rule has come at a great cost to the Russian people.
While Putin's regime may appear strong on the surface, Popkov argues that it is becoming increasingly fragile. The lack of functioning political and social institutions, coupled with the heavy-handed use of police power to maintain control, suggests that the foundations of Putin's authority are crumbling.
Popkov's prediction of "great turbulence" and "revolutionary change" is a stark warning to the Kremlin. As the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, the discontent and disillusionment within Russia could boil over into open revolt against Putin's authoritarian rule.
The fall of the Soviet Union serves as a cautionary tale, and Popkov believes that history may soon repeat itself. Just as the "collapse of the ideology" led to the downfall of the USSR, the erosion of Putin's political and social legitimacy could pave the way for a similar reckoning in modern-day Russia.
Only time will tell if Popkov's dire prediction comes to fruition. But his words serve as a sobering reminder that even the most entrenched authoritarian regimes are not immune to the forces of change and upheaval. For Putin, the writing may already be on the wall.
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