Crimea, the strategic peninsula occupied by Russian forces, is increasingly becoming a liability for Moscow as Ukrainian resistance efforts disrupt crucial supply lines to the region. The situation on the ground is rapidly deteriorating for the Russian military presence in Crimea.
Deliveries through Crimea are facing significant challenges, with the Ukrainian forces successfully targeting and disrupting key transportation routes. The Black Sea Fleet, a vital asset for Russia's military operations, has been forced to retreat from its base in Sevastopol, further complicating the logistical situation.
The Ukrainian resistance is actively identifying and designating targets for attacks within the occupied Crimean peninsula. This targeted approach has proven effective in cutting off Crimea from essential supply routes, slowly turning the region into a trap for the Russian forces.
The Ukrainians are systematically targeting and degrading the communication lines that link Crimea to the Russian mainland. This tactic is creating a serious problem for the Russian military, as their options for resupplying and reinforcing their units in Crimea are becoming increasingly limited.
The units fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region can only be supplied via ferries across the Kerch Strait, the M14 highway along the Sea of Azov coast, and an expanded railway line. These supply lines are now under constant threat from Ukrainian attacks, further compounding the logistical challenges faced by the Russian forces.
As the Ukrainian resistance continues to exert pressure on Crimea, the once-secure Russian foothold is gradually becoming a liability. The occupying forces are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain their grip on the strategically important peninsula, raising the possibility of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive to reclaim the territory.
The bridge is there, but it's as if it isn't
The first option for transport is currently unavailable. On May 30, the Ukrainians damaged the ferries "Avangard" and "ConroTrader" with ATACMS missiles. These ferries handled both vehicular and rail transport. Commander Dmytro Pleteńczuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Naval Forces, stated that the Russians would try to restore this connection, as the ferries had become the main logistical tool allowing groups fighting in southern Ukraine to be supplied through the Crimean peninsula.
The fastest, though not the safest, way to deliver supplies to the front is through the Crimean Bridge, built soon after the peninsula's annexation. The bridge has already been attacked twice by the Ukrainians. In fall 2022, a truck filled with explosives detonated on it, damaging several spans. Another attack using marine drones, which damaged more spans, occurred in July last year.
At that time, the Russians initially significantly limited the use of the bridge for military transports and later - at least until mid-May 2024 - practically stopped using it altogether. Analysis of satellite images indicated that during this period, only once - at the end of February - was the passage of a train with military tankers recorded.
During this period, the Russians tried to strengthen the protection of the bridge. It is protected by sunken ships and barges, and steel nets are hung on buoys between them, theoretically intended to catch incoming unmanned boats. After the ferries were damaged, the Russians had to resume deliveries via the bridge. According to the Ukrainians, only a symbolic amount of supplies is delivered this way.
The Crimean Bridge is no longer important from a military point of view, so its destruction will not have the same effect as at the beginning of the war, assessed the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Naval Forces. "There's no point in destroying the bridge just to lift our spirits." The railway line Yakymivka-Berdyansk-Mariupol-Rostov-on-Don will be important in ensuring the supply chain. This route will connect the occupied regions with Crimea and the mainland. The destruction of this new railway infrastructure would be a serious problem for the Russian army.
The retreat of the Black Sea Fleet
Over the past six months, Russia has been withdrawing its naval assets from ports in Crimea due to threats to its supply routes and ships. The Russian ships initially moved to the port of Novorossiysk, which is out of range of Ukrainian cruise missiles. This included a large patrol ship and five large landing ships that had been undergoing repairs after sustaining damage. Frigates, missile corvettes, and submarines, except the sunken "Rostov-on-Don," have also disappeared from Crimean ports.
In June, the transport and landing ships were withdrawn, and on July 15th, the last combat ship, the patrol vessel "Ladny," left Sevastopol. The "Ladny" was an outdated frigate launched in 1980 and had limited combat capabilities, serving primarily as an anti-aircraft ship.
Russia initially tried to deploy the ships relocated from Crimea to other Black Sea ports, but found that these locations were either too far from the theater of war or lacked adequate facilities to accommodate the large number of vessels. As a result, Novorossiysk became the main destination, though this port also has serious drawbacks in terms of its ability to host such a sizable fleet.
In the Azov Sea region, Russia's naval presence is limited to smaller units, such as torpedo boats and patrol vessels, which are focused on operations around the Crimean Bridge.
Overall, Russia's naval assets in the Black and Azov Seas have been significantly reduced and consolidated in Novorossiysk, a port that is not well-suited to handle a large number of ships. This reflects the growing challenges Russia faces in maintaining its naval presence and supply lines in the region.
Problems also in Crimea
The Ukrainians are well aware of the location of Russian units in Crimea. Partisan units and regular Special Forces operate on the peninsula, conducting sabotage operations and marking targets for rocket artillery and aviation.
"Atesh," a Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar partisan movement, reported that the Russians are moving their aircraft to inactive airfields. The partisans reported repair works at the Zavodskoje airfield in Simferopol. Fighters and bombers used to attack Ukraine may be relocated there.
This is valuable information as the Ukrainians have been equipped with long-range ATACMS missiles since April. These can destroy targets up to 186 miles away, including those in occupied Crimea.
The Ukrainian military can also count on support from civilians. The Center for National Resistance (a website of Ukraine's Armed Forces aimed at supporting civilian resistance) compiled a list of Russian equipment along with photos and silhouettes, enabling civilians to identify and mark the locations of Russian systems.
Residents of occupied territories can use an app to mark the relevant vehicles and their locations or a chatbot to send photos along with the positions of vehicles. These targets have repeatedly been destroyed by Ukrainian rockets.
Crimea has thus slowly become a trap for the Russians, which means serious problems for the Southern Military Group.
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