The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a leading American think tank, has published a new analysis suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing the Russian public for a prolonged war with Ukraine that could last another decade.
The analysis is centered on an interview given by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the newspaper Argumenty I Fakty on Wednesday. In the interview, Medvedev commented on NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's recent statement that Ukraine could potentially join the alliance within the next 10 years. Medvedev said, "It is not for nothing" that Stoltenberg made this suggestion, and added that Ukraine will "never" join NATO because "it is quite possible that the notorious country 404 will not exist either." The term "country 404" is a derogatory reference to the 404 computer error, implying that Ukraine is not a real state.
While Medvedev did not explicitly state that Ukraine would cease to exist within the next 10 years, the ISW analysis noted that Russian news outlets began publishing stories suggesting that he had said Ukraine would "disappear" in the next decade. The think tank argued that these reports are intended to set "societal expectations for a war that will last another decade" and promise the Russian public that Moscow will be able to win the war and "destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade."
The ISW further observed that the "Russian narrative" emphasizes that the Kremlin's ultimate goal for the war is the destruction of the Ukrainian state. This aligns with Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent offer to "immediately" order a ceasefire and start negotiations if Ukraine withdraws its troops from the four regions annexed by Russia in 2022 and renounces its plans to join NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected Putin's offer, which he described as an "ultimatum" to surrender more Ukrainian territory. Ukraine's position remains that it will not give up any of its territory and that it wants Russian forces to withdraw from all occupied areas, including Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine also insists on the restoration of its full territorial integrity and the accountability of Russia for war crimes.
The contrasting positions of Russia and Ukraine suggest that the conflict is far from resolution. The ISW's analysis indicates that the Kremlin is preparing the Russian public for a prolonged war, potentially lasting another decade, with the ultimate goal of destroying Ukraine's statehood. This raises concerns about the prolonged suffering and devastation that the Ukrainian people may face in the years to come.
As the war in Ukraine continues to unfold, the international community will be closely monitoring the situation and the potential implications for regional and global stability. The outcome of this conflict could have far-reaching consequences for the geopolitical landscape and the future of European security.
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