Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a lead over former President Donald Trump in a fifth crucial swing state, according to polling averages on Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin website.
The Democratic presidential race saw a significant shift when President Joe Biden made the unprecedented decision to withdraw from the election on July 21 and endorse Harris, his vice president. This endorsement has resulted in Harris becoming the official Democratic nominee, leading to a surge in her polling numbers.
She now leads Trump in both national and swing state polls, where Biden had previously trailed. Nate Silver, the founder of the FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site, which he parted ways with last year, reported on X (formerly known as Twitter) that Harris is ahead of Trump in Arizona according to his Silver Bulletin polling average.
The average shows Harris at 45.3 percent compared to Trump's 44 percent in Arizona. "Today's update: Another good day for HARRIS, who now leads in our polling average in Arizona and is only 6/10ths of a point down in North Carolina," Silver wrote.
Silver's averages also show Harris narrowly leading in Michigan (46.4 percent to Trump's 42.5 percent), Nevada (44.9 percent to 44 percent), Pennsylvania (46.4 percent to 44.1 percent), and Wisconsin (47.5 percent to 43.6 percent).
Although Harris is still slightly behind in North Carolina, according to Silver's average, the race remains close, with Harris at 45.4 percent and Trump at 46 percent.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email.
Meanwhile, during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last week, Trump claimed, "I'm leading by a lot," though he did not provide specific polling data.
Halee Dobbins, Team Trump's Arizona Communications Director, told Newsweek, "Years of the Harris-Biden administration's failed policies have made living in Arizona harder, less safe, and have prompted historic inflation making food, housing, and gas more expensive.
Kamala Harris' open border agenda has normalized a migrant invasion and created a deadly stream of fentanyl flowing into our communities. Arizona voters are eager for a return to President Trump's prosperous policies that secured our state and made life affordable," Dobbins said.
How Does Silver's Data Compare?
According to FiveThirtyEight's average for Arizona, last updated on Thursday, Harris is slightly leading Trump, with 45.4 percent compared to his 44.6 percent. The ABC site also indicates that Harris is ahead of Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but trails slightly by 0.2 percent in Nevada.
Meanwhile, The Hill's polling average, updated on Wednesday, shows Trump narrowly leading in Arizona with 47.3 percent to Harris's 46.6 percent. However, The Hill reports that Harris is leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Nevada by 2.3 points.
What About Historical Precedent?
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden narrowly defeated Donald Trump in Arizona, securing 49.4% of the vote compared to Trump's 49.1%. The victory in Arizona was particularly significant as it marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee had won the state since 1996. Biden's success in the election extended beyond Arizona; he also triumphed in several key states, including Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
These wins were crucial in securing his overall victory. Meanwhile, Trump managed to maintain a stronghold in North Carolina. The close results in Arizona, with a margin of less than 10,500 votes, highlighted the state's shifting political landscape and the intense competition between the two major parties. This outcome underscored the importance of battleground states in determining the overall result of the election and the changing dynamics of American politics.
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