Ri Il Kyu, the highest-profile North Korean defector to escape since 2016, offers a unique perspective on North Korea's view of a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. Having met Kim Jong Un on seven occasions, Ri describes the leader as appearing friendly and often in a good mood, though he believes Kim would do anything to ensure his survival, even if it meant extreme measures against his people.
According to Ri, North Korea sees Trump as a potential negotiator for its nuclear weapons program, despite the breakdown of talks in 2019. Kim Jong Un’s previous personal rapport with Trump is viewed as an opportunity to leverage negotiations, with North Korea potentially seeking a deal to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions. This contrasts with a recent North Korean statement claiming indifference to the next U.S. president. Trump himself has suggested that Kim Jong Un would prefer his return to office.
Ri Il Kyu, however, is skeptical of North Korea’s intentions, warning that any agreement to freeze its nuclear program would likely be a deceptive tactic rather than a genuine commitment. He believes such a strategy would only bolster North Korea's position and lead to more challenges in dealing with the regime.
A 'life or death gamble'
Eight months after defecting, Ri Il Kyu is now residing with his family in Seoul, South Korea. Accompanied by a police bodyguard and two intelligence agents, he reveals his reasons for abandoning his former government.
After years of enduring corruption, bribery, and a lack of freedom, Mr. Ri was finally pushed to defect when his request for a medical operation in Mexico was denied. Despite enjoying a privileged lifestyle in North Korea, he notes, "Even living as part of the top 1% in North Korea is still worse than being a middle-class family in the South." During his time as a diplomat in Cuba, he earned just $500 a month and supplemented his income by illegally selling Cuban cigars in China to support his family.
When Mr. Ri first disclosed his intention to defect to his wife, it caused her severe distress and resulted in her hospitalization. He kept his plans secret from everyone except her and their child until just six hours before their departure.
Describing the decision as a "life or death gamble," he explains that ordinary defectors might face torture and then release, but for elites like him, the consequences are far graver—either imprisonment in a political labor camp or execution by firing squad.
“The fear and terror were overwhelming,” Mr. Ri says. “I could accept my own death, but I couldn't bear the thought of my family being dragged to a gulag.” Although he had never been religious, he began to pray while waiting nervously at the airport.
The last major defection to South Korea was that of Tae Yong-ho in 2016. A former deputy ambassador to the UK, Tae is now the leader of South Korea's presidential advisory council on unification. Regarding North Korea’s recent alignment with Russia, Mr. Ri asserts that the Ukraine war has been beneficial for Pyongyang. The US and South Korea believe North Korea has supplied Moscow with millions of rounds of ammunition in exchange for food, fuel, and potentially military technology.
Mr. Ri explains that this arrangement has provided North Korea with a "loophole" in international sanctions, allowing it to continue developing nuclear weapons and missiles without needing to seek sanctions relief from the US.
However, Mr. Ri believes that Kim Jong Un is aware that this alliance with Russia is temporary and that relations will likely end after the war. Consequently, Mr. Kim has not abandoned hopes of improving relations with the US. “North Korea understands that the only way to ensure its survival and advance its economy is to normalize relations with the United States,” he says.
While the Russia-North Korea deal has offered temporary relief from economic distress, Mr. Ri notes that the pandemic’s complete border closure severely impacted North Korea’s economy and the lives of its people. When borders reopened in 2023, diplomats were asked to bring anything they could, even used toothbrushes, as supplies were critically low.
Mr. Ri observes that the North Korean leader demands total loyalty, with any hint of dissent resulting in severe punishment. He believes that years of hardship have eroded genuine loyalty among the populace, who no longer expect anything from Kim Jong Un. “Loyalty to the regime is now a matter of survival, not genuine allegiance,” he concludes.
The “most evil act”
The recent shift in North Korea’s social landscape has been significantly influenced by the smuggling of South Korean films, dramas, and music, despite such content being illegal. Mr. Ri explains that North Koreans don’t engage with South Korean media out of capitalist beliefs but to escape their dreary and monotonous lives. This exposure leads them to question why people in the South enjoy a higher standard of living while they remain impoverished.
Mr. Ri acknowledges that while South Korean content is affecting North Korean society, it is unlikely to bring about the regime's collapse due to the stringent control mechanisms in place. Kim Jong Un, he argues, is acutely aware of the waning loyalty among his people and their evolving attitudes, which is why he is intensifying his grip on power. The government has introduced severe punishments for those consuming or distributing South Korean content, with reports of executions for such offenses.
In a move to further isolate North Koreans from the South, the regime abandoned its long-standing reunification policy at the end of last year. Mr. Ri describes this as Kim Jong Un’s “most evil act,” noting that while previous leaders robbed people of their freedom, money, and rights, Kim has deprived them of hope.
Outside North Korea, speculation about Kim Jong Un’s health often centers on the belief that his death could trigger the regime’s downfall. Recent estimates suggest Kim weighs 140 kg, raising concerns about cardiovascular disease. However, Mr. Ri believes that the regime’s robust system of surveillance and control would ensure that another authoritarian leader would simply take his place.
Although there are rumors that Kim is grooming his young daughter, Ju Ae, to be his successor, Mr. Ri dismisses this idea. He argues that Ju Ae lacks the legitimacy and popularity necessary to lead North Korea, especially since the Kim dynasty’s rule is justified through the male members of the Paektu bloodline.
Mr. Ri suggests that rather than waiting for Kim Jong Un’s demise, the international community, including North Korea’s allies like China and Russia, should persistently work to persuade the regime to change. He believes that such collective efforts are crucial for ending the North Korean dictatorship.
While Mr. Ri hopes to inspire others to push for internal reforms rather than defecting, his primary focus now is helping his family adjust to their new life in South Korea and ensuring his child integrates into society. Reflecting on his journey, he offers a sobering analogy: “Imagine I presented you with a venture where success means great rewards, but failure results in death. You wouldn’t agree, would you? Yet that was the choice I imposed on my family, and they silently accepted and followed me.”
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