Elements such as domestic partisans, intelligence leaks from within, and volunteers supporting Kyiv are crucial for undermining the Kremlin's power.
The current Russian government is systematically transforming the country into a version of the USSR 2.0. There is extensive censorship, repression of opposition leaders, persecution of human rights activists, journalists, and public figures, and a strict ban on criticism, especially regarding the war in Ukraine.
These conditions make democratic change in the Kremlin almost impossible. Moreover, the regime is already planning a successor who would appease all influential groups, making a power shift unlikely even if Putin were to die suddenly.
Meanwhile, the Russian opposition is fragmented, lacks a strong leader, and has little influence on the situation in the country. The Kremlin is aware of this weakness, as demonstrated by its agreement to a prisoner exchange with the U.S. on August 1, 2024. Additionally, Moscow’s aggression extends beyond its war with Ukraine, with increasing threats to the West. NATO analysts are warning of Russia’s preparedness for future conflicts.
In this context, partisan activities within Russia, recruitment of law enforcement officers, and actions by Russian volunteer units fighting for Ukraine are more than symbolic gestures.
These efforts are weakening Russia’s military capabilities, contributing to Ukraine's success and laying the groundwork for potential changes within Russia. The military and security agencies (such as the FSB and Rosgvardia) are central to maintaining the authoritarian regime.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (DIU) seems to be leveraging these internal divisions. Reports of sabotage and special operations in Russia suggest that the DIU has established a network of agents within Russia’s military and government sectors. For instance, in 2023, a Russian officer, Danil Alfyorov, was recruited by Ukrainian intelligence and convinced 11 other Russian soldiers to surrender.
In August 2024, the "Reeds" operation successfully targeted a Russian military headquarters, and the officer responsible defected to Ukraine. There have been various other acts of sabotage, such as disrupting rail lines and destroying military transport infrastructure.
One significant operation took place on April 8, 2024, when the DIU sabotaged the Russian missile ship *Serpukhov*, damaging its communications and automation systems while it was docked at the Baltiysk naval base. The ship, which carried Kinzhal and Oniks missiles, was slated for deployment to the Black Sea.
The operation, kept secret until July, was carried out by a former Russian sailor with access to state secrets. Known by the pseudonym "Goga," the sailor had Ukrainian roots and sought to leave the Russian military after the full-scale invasion. He eventually cooperated with Ukraine, planting a bomb on the ship and fleeing with sensitive information.
Goga was smuggled into Ukraine, where he joined the Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL), a volunteer unit composed of Russians fighting against Putin's regime. The FRL is one of several Russian volunteer groups, including the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Siberian Battalion, that are active in Ukraine and have launched raids into Russian territory.
The Kremlin has labeled them as traitors and terrorists, but these groups view their fight as a "special liberation operation" against Putin, calling on fellow Russians to join their cause.
The DIU has expressed support for these volunteer formations, with sources describing them as the "only real Russian opposition." Their presence undermines Russian propaganda, especially the Kremlin's narrative about Ukraine being a haven for Nazis. Additionally, these volunteers set an example for other Russian soldiers who may disagree with the Kremlin's actions.
For instance, after Russia's missile strike on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024, a pilot from Russia’s 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division contacted Ukrainian intelligence, providing valuable documents in response to the atrocity.
As more Russians begin to resist the Kremlin from within, these acts of opposition are generating tangible results that weaken Russia's military and impact the course of the ongoing war. Western nations supporting Ukraine should focus on these forms of resistance for real progress.
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