Jarron, a 37-year-old Black man from a suburb of Atlanta, remained mostly silent during the focus group. He spent most of the session hunched over his clipboard, scribbling notes, and I had resigned myself to not hearing much from him.
Then, he spoke up. When I asked the group of Black voters about their hesitations regarding Kamala Harris, Jarron looked up and said, “Woman problems.”
I probed further. “You know, dealing with men. This country’s built on being tough. But with a woman, you get more ideas; they’re more... groan-ish.”
Others in the group chimed in. A 54-year-old business owner who had voted for Biden expressed concerns that Harris might be “too emotional.” The women in the group didn’t hold back either, saying Harris didn’t measure up to Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama.
Their comments reflect a broader shift happening in Georgia and across the Sunbelt. Historically loyal Democratic voting blocs are showing signs of wavering support and enthusiasm.
Recent polling by The New York Times and Siena College revealed Trump holding a 4-point lead over Harris in Georgia, a 5-point lead in Arizona, and a 2-point advantage in North Carolina. In Nevada, another swing state, the JL Partners model shows Trump leading with 52%.
These numbers, decades ago, would have seemed like warning signs for Republicans. The Sunbelt states were Republican bastions, solidified by Richard Nixon’s “Southern strategy” and strengthened by Ronald Reagan’s low-tax, small-government policies.
However demographic changes in the 2000s and 2010s shifted the political landscape. Younger, more diverse populations grew in these states, with Hispanic communities moving into Arizona and Nevada and college-educated whites flocking to boomtowns like Charlotte, North Carolina, and Atlanta, Georgia. These states now have significant electoral weight and have become key battlegrounds.
Trump is making headway in these regions, in part due to dissatisfaction with the current administration, inflation woes, and concerns about crime. But there’s more to the story. Traditionally Democratic minority communities are becoming more willing to reconsider their votes.
In 2012, Mitt Romney garnered just 27% of the Hispanic vote. By 2020, Trump captured as much as 38%, and Republicans continued to perform well with Hispanics in the 2022 midterms. This shift, particularly among Cuban-Americans, has locked Florida securely in the red column for Republicans and is now spreading out West.
In interviews with Hispanic voters in Arizona, one issue stood out as the reason many were leaning toward Trump: the border. With illegal crossings surging under the Biden administration, these first- and second-generation immigrants feel disillusioned.
They and their families came the legal way—working multiple jobs to make it—and now they see people jumping the line. Trump’s strong stance on border security resonates with them, though he’ll need to be careful his rhetoric doesn’t come off as anti-immigrant instead of anti-illegal immigration.
The enthusiasm of Black voters for the Democrats is also cooling. While they’re not likely to vote Republican in large numbers—Republican opposition to the Civil Rights Act still lingers—their alignment with Democratic values is being questioned more and more.
Mikael, a young Black teacher in Atlanta, mentioned that the Democrats’ stance on “transgender issues” made her reconsider her vote. “Black families are really big on protecting children,” she explained. “We might change our vote because we don’t want those issues pushed on our kids so young.”
Biden was able to turn out huge numbers of Black voters in 2020, relying on his time as vice president under Obama and his long-standing popularity in Black communities. Kamala Harris, as the first Black woman to potentially run for president, faces scrutiny from voters like Jarron, who suggest her gender may be a more significant barrier than her race. Just two years ago, Stacey Abrams—a Black woman—ran for governor of Georgia and struggled to energize the Black vote.
Trump does face challenges in the Sunbelt. North Carolina is the most vulnerable, especially with the national Republican Party distancing itself from the state’s gubernatorial nominee after damaging allegations surfaced. In Arizona, Trump’s momentum is hindered by the presence of an abortion referendum on the ballot, which could boost Democratic turnout.
While things are looking up for Trump in the Sunbelt, it’s not enough on its own to secure victory. Even if he takes all four of these key states, Harris would still eke out a win with a razor-thin 270 to 268 Electoral College margin. To secure the presidency, Trump will also need to flip a Midwestern state—most likely Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
For now, Trump is gaining ground in the Sunbelt, but winning there is just one step. The path to victory requires more than just a strong showing in the South.
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