The retention of the region is pivotal to the Ukrainian president's 'victory plan,' which he shared with Sir Keir Starmer last week.
Russia has regained control of approximately half the territory it initially lost to Ukraine in the Kursk region, a key area in President Volodymyr Zelensky's strategy to defeat Vladimir Putin.
According to Major General Apty Alaudinov, a Chechen commander, around 50,000 Russian troops are forcing Ukrainian forces to either retreat or risk being surrounded. He stated, "Approximately half of the territory occupied by the enemy has already been liberated."
Both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers have reported since Saturday that Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian front lines in Kursk. While President Zelensky claims the situation is under control, the US-based Institute for the Study of War, which is strongly pro-Ukraine, has observed visual evidence that Russia has recaptured 46% of its lost territory in the region.
Weather conditions have added to Ukraine's challenges. Seasonal rains have turned the ground to mud, which favors Russia’s use of tracked vehicles over Ukraine's wheeled vehicles. Pro-Kremlin blogger Boris Rozhin posted a video of Ukrainian troops struggling to move an armored car through a muddy forest. He noted, “Ukrainian forces are complaining about their wheeled vehicles, while Russian forces are relying on tracked vehicles.” The muddy season, known as "Rasputitsa," is notorious for slowing military operations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Emil Kastehelmi, a research analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, highlighted that the terrain in Kursk—mainly large open fields—offers limited natural cover, making it difficult for Ukraine to defend, especially without strong fortifications. Kastehelmi estimates that Ukraine has lost at least a third of the territory it once controlled in the region.
Ukraine's offensive into Russia, launched in August, initially caught Russian forces off guard and gained control of roughly 450 square miles around the town of Sudzha. While this move boosted morale in Ukraine, some analysts argue it weakened Ukrainian defenses rather than diverting Russian forces from other areas. George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the US-based Quincy Institute, recently called the operation a potential "blunder" and questioned its long-term benefits.
Nevertheless, Zelensky has made holding onto the Kursk salient a key component of his "Victory Plan," which he recently shared with UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. However, Russian forces have intensified their attacks along the Donbas front, and pro-Russian officials in occupied Donetsk claimed on Tuesday that they had captured two-thirds of Toretsk, a strategic town.
Meanwhile, in the northern sector of the eastern front, Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of civilians from Kupyansk due to advancing Russian forces. Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Kharkiv region, warned of worsening conditions, saying, “The military situation is deteriorating, and we cannot ensure the heating season, electricity, or humanitarian aid due to enemy shelling of critical infrastructure.”
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