The conflict in Ukraine has persisted for over 1,000 days, with recent developments marking a significant escalation. Outgoing President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine's use of American ATACMS missiles to target positions deep within Russian territory, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Moscow.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile, a stark warning to the West. However, experts are divided on whether this is genuine brinkmanship or strategic posturing aimed at reasserting Russia's global influence.
Teddy Uldricks, a Russian politics expert from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, interprets Putin's actions as part of a broader strategy rooted in nostalgia for Soviet-era prominence. "Putin wants to recover the Soviet Union’s former status and global influence," Uldricks explained to Daily Express US. Meanwhile, Sean McFate, a foreign policy expert and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council speculates that Biden's moves might be part of a covert effort to pressure Putin into peace negotiations. “The administration could be quietly working towards brokering peace while using battlefield actions to strengthen their hand,” McFate suggested.
Amid these developments, President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take office following his victory in the 2024 election. McFate predicts that Trump may pursue a more isolationist stance, potentially freezing the conflict to align with Putin's long-term goals. "Putin might simply be waiting out Biden, aiming to either fully invade Ukraine or install a pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv," McFate said.
Uldricks expressed concerns about Trump's forthcoming administration, particularly regarding his historically friendly stance toward Putin. Trump's claims that he could end the war "in one day" were dismissed by Uldricks as "unrealistic." He warned that a U.S. withdrawal under Trump could embolden Putin, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences for NATO and Ukraine.
While Biden has been credited with strengthening NATO, McFate argued that this has triggered unintended consequences: a strengthened alliance among autocratic regimes like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. "This new ‘axis of autocracies’ is cooperating with alarming efficiency, and their interconnectedness amplifies the impact of any conflict involving them," McFate noted. He described the current situation as dangerously global but stopped short of labeling it the start of World War III.
North Korea’s involvement in the war has added another layer of complexity. Reports suggest that nearly 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to support Russia, with ethnic minorities disproportionately bearing the brunt of the conflict. McFate and Uldricks expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of these troops, with Uldricks noting that their performance seemed underwhelming despite claims of them being "elite forces."
The experts also highlighted divisions over the U.S. approach. Uldricks criticized the Biden administration for delivering military aid to Ukraine too late, referencing Ukrainian commanders who lamented delays in receiving ATACMS missiles. Meanwhile, McFate condemned Biden’s last-minute decisions, suggesting they might escalate tensions unnecessarily. "The administration is playing with fire by authorizing these moves now. They should step back and let the incoming administration handle the situation," McFate said.
As tensions rise, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to appeal for international support, warning that Putin’s actions are a direct challenge to global resolve. However, McFate acknowledged growing “Zelensky fatigue” among NATO allies, which could weaken the coalition's united front against Russian aggression.
Despite these challenges, experts caution against underestimating Russia's resilience. Although Russia has suffered heavy losses, its military remains formidable, bolstered by support from allies like North Korea. Yet this alliance is not without friction, as China, another critical Russian ally, may view North Korea's growing involvement as destabilizing.
The conflict remains fraught with uncertainty, with Biden’s final months in office setting the stage for what could be significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy under Trump. How these developments unfold will have profound implications for Ukraine, NATO, and the global balance of power.
Climbing into bed with Putin is a dangerous move. Russia is on the ropes and for the west to become soft on Russia will be a grave mistake. Russia under Putin has committed many crimes and to forget that is a grave mistake. Putin is on the ropes and his threatening the west is a last effort to win some groung. Celenskie must not accept anything that is detrimental to Ukraike. He has the upper hand and he can bargain as such
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