With just days until the election, new polls from UMass Lowell / YouGov reveal an intensely close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in several key swing states. In states like North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire, both candidates are focusing their last campaign efforts, as these battleground states are pivotal in securing the necessary Electoral College votes. The polling reflects a nationwide trend showing a highly competitive race, with both parties vying for any advantage as they close in on November 5.
Swing states are likely to play a decisive role, given that even small shifts in voter preferences can tip the Electoral College outcome. As the campaigns wind down, expect an intensified focus on appealing to undecided voters and mobilizing turnout in these critical regions.
Trump leads Harris in North Carolina
A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, released Thursday, shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by two percentage points in the final days of the 2024 election. The survey of 650 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 23, found Trump ahead with 47% support to Harris’s 45%, with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
The poll indicates potential challenges for the vice president, as 74% of respondents expressed concerns that the country is on the wrong track, and 57% somewhat or strongly disapproved of President Joe Biden’s performance.
In key areas, Trump held an advantage among respondents: 49% favored him on handling the economy, 48% on managing the Middle East conflict, and 52% on immigration. However, Harris was rated higher on handling abortion, with 50% of respondents supporting her stance on the issue.
On personal qualities, Harris scored better in perceived trustworthiness (45%) and likelihood to uphold the law (46%). In contrast, 48% of those surveyed viewed Trump as more corrupt than Harris.
Harris leads Trump in Michigan
In Michigan, Vice President Harris holds a narrow 4-point advantage over former President Trump, as per a recent UMass poll.
The poll, conducted from October 16 to 24 among 600 likely voters, shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 45%. It has a margin of error of 4.49 percentage points.
Despite her lead, 66% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track—a concerning indicator for Harris.
When asked who would best handle the economy, respondents leaned slightly toward Trump, with 46% favoring him compared to 45% for Harris.
Additional insights from the poll include:
- 56% somewhat or strongly disapprove of President Biden's performance.
- 46% feel Trump is better suited to handle Middle East conflicts.
- 57% believe Harris would better address abortion issues.
- 49% view Harris as more trustworthy, while 52% consider Trump more corrupt.
Harris with a slim lead in Pennsylvania
The latest UMass poll reveals Vice President Harris with a narrow one-point lead over former President Trump in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.
Conducted from October 16 to 23, the survey included 800 likely voters and showed Harris leading Trump 48% to 47%, a margin within the poll’s 3.73 percentage-point margin of error.
Harris is slightly ahead in New Hampshire
Harris holds a seven-point lead in New Hampshire, according to a recent UMass survey.
The poll, conducted from October 16 to 23 with 600 likely voters, shows Harris leading 50% to 43%, with a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.
In a shift from other polls, 47% of respondents favored Harris in managing the economy, though Trump maintained an edge in handling the Middle East conflict (44%) and immigration (44%).
Other findings include:
- 72% believe the country is on the wrong track
- 56% somewhat or strongly disapprove of Biden
- 57% think Harris would handle abortion better
- 53% consider Harris more trustworthy, while 54% see Trump as more corrupt
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error indicates the reliability of the survey results in reflecting the views of the entire population.
If a candidate's lead falls "within" the margin of error, it is classified as a "statistical tie," as stated by the Pew Research Center.
Pew has also noted that most pollsters have adjusted their methods following the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, during which Trump's performance was considerably underestimated.
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