Russia's heavy losses in Ukraine spark military crisis

 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has highlighted the severe toll on Russia’s military in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. According to their estimates, Russian forces have lost nearly 200 tanks and over 650 armored vehicles. 

Additionally, they report around 80,000 casualties, reflecting the immense human and material costs of the war. Despite these staggering losses, Russia has made limited territorial gains, occupying only about 580 square miles during the intensified offensive in September and October.

Experts from the ISW have expressed concerns about Russia’s ability to sustain such high casualty rates over an extended period, especially if President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to call up more reservists. They argue that the Russian military cannot continue losing more than 1,200 soldiers a day without facing significant operational difficulties.

 Furthermore, the experts suggest that even a forced mobilization of additional troops would not solve the root problem of needing a larger workforce to support both the military and domestic industrial needs.

One of the key challenges facing Russia is the morale of its soldiers, which is deteriorating due to the perception that they are being treated as "cannon fodder." This is compounded by ineffective military command tactics, which have further undermined the effectiveness of Russian operations. 

Analysts also point out that Russia’s ongoing recruitment struggles have made it difficult to replace the losses at the front. In fact, since October 2023, Russia is estimated to have lost at least five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk region of the Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has acknowledged the shortage of military personnel in a public speech, and reports suggest that Russia is increasingly coercing migrants into joining the armed forces. This reliance on forced recruitment highlights the Russian military's struggles to maintain sufficient manpower.

The ISW concludes that while Russian forces may continue to make small operational gains, the current rate of losses is unsustainable in the long term, particularly given the minimal territorial gains achieved. The Russian military's challenges in replenishing its ranks and maintaining morale will likely limit its effectiveness in future operations, and it remains unclear how much longer it can sustain such a costly campaign.