The analysis by Professor Anthony Glees highlights a growing tension surrounding the geopolitical future of Ukraine, particularly about the possible return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. Glees suggests that Putin is preparing for a scenario in which Trump might broker a peace deal that allows Russia to retain its current territorial gains in Ukraine while forcing Ukraine to remain nonaligned, particularly by preventing NATO membership for a set period.
This outlook is grounded in the idea that Trump, as a "peacenik" who tends to prefer diplomatic solutions and is wary of military intervention, could pursue a deal that favors Putin's interests. Glees compares Trump’s potential approach to that of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who famously attempted to appease Hitler before World War II.
Glees expresses skepticism about Trump’s ability to secure a lasting peace that would prevent Russia from eventually seeking to take all of Ukraine and eliminating its leadership, as Putin would likely see any temporary peace agreement as a stepping stone to further conquest.
Furthermore, Glees points to the recently signed Russian nuclear doctrine, which broadens the conditions under which Russia might resort to nuclear retaliation. This includes scenarios where Ukraine, aided by NATO powers like the U.S. and the U.K., might provoke a nuclear response from Russia, an issue that is increasingly being discussed within the context of rising tensions.
The doctrine essentially gives Russia the right to consider an attack on its sovereignty or territorial integrity—particularly if involving nuclear-capable allies—as an existential threat.
The expert's warning is not only about Russia's aggression but also about the perceived weakness of Western powers in counteracting it, particularly in the face of what he sees as an ineffective response to Putin's growing military posture.
The expert concludes that, unless NATO bolsters its conventional military capabilities significantly, Western nations may be left vulnerable, especially with the uncertain future of U.S. leadership under Trump.
In Russia, Dmitry Medvedev's comments further underscore the risk of escalating conflict, as he warns that NATO's involvement could lead to World War III, especially if alliance missiles are used against Russia. The rhetoric from Moscow has heightened concerns of global instability, prompting countries like Sweden to update their preparedness guidelines in case of war.
This entire scenario paints a dire picture of international relations, where military, political, and diplomatic strategies intersect in potentially catastrophic ways.
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