President-elect Donald Trump could potentially remove Russia from Ukraine swiftly, claims a 2024 Nobel Prize laureate, suggesting such a move would bolster his ability to counter China's economic influence.
"Trump could achieve a quick and significant victory against China by driving Russia entirely out of Ukraine and restoring pre-invasion borders," wrote Simon Johnson and Oleg Ustenko in an article for *Euromaidan Press* on Tuesday.
Simon Johnson, awarded the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on political economy and economic institutions, and Oleg Ustenko, a former economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (2019–2024), argued that confronting Russia would elevate U.S. global prestige and enhance Trump’s leverage over China.
"Crippling Russia economically would not only weaken its war effort but also demonstrate U.S. power," they wrote, emphasizing Russia’s reliance on oil exports. "Trump can reduce Russian oil revenues to nearly zero from his first day in office, effectively halting its war machine."
Russia's oil and gas industry remains a critical pillar of its economy, accounting for a substantial share of exports and 30.9% of the federal budget in 2023, according to the Atlantic Council. Although sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion have reduced revenues, illicit trade and alliances with non-G7 nations have allowed Russia’s economy to persist.
Johnson and Ustenko propose an aggressive strategy: "Trump could impose severe U.S. sanctions on any entity paying over $15 per barrel for Russian oil, alongside punitive tariffs for non-compliant countries."
The G7 had set a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil in late 2022 to balance sanctions with global market stability, but Johnson and Ustenko argue this measure falls short.
"A much lower price cap, combined with stricter sanctions on illicit trade, would leave Putin no option but to withdraw from Ukraine," they wrote, adding that such measures could achieve significant geopolitical and economic gains for the United States.
Comments
Post a Comment