Donald Trump and Republicans Propose a "Responsible Peace Deal" for Ukraine—but Face a Gordian Knot
Donald Trump and his Republican allies are championing a new catchphrase for resolving Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia: a “responsible peace deal.” However, as they prepare to assume power, they may find themselves confronting a challenge best described as a Gordian knot—a seemingly intractable problem rooted in history.
In Greek mythology, the Gordian knot was a complex tangle created by Gordius, King of Phrygia. According to legend, it could only be undone by the future ruler of Asia. Today, the term symbolizes a problem so intricate it may appear unsolvable.
For President-elect Trump, taking office next month, this metaphor aptly describes the task of brokering peace in Ukraine. Unlike the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, the goal is a lasting accord that safeguards Ukraine’s sovereignty, deters future aggression, and addresses the core demands of both sides.
A Daunting Challenge
Bridging these divides may be far more challenging than Trump anticipates. Still, he might embrace the task for personal reasons—perhaps imagining that success could earn him the Nobel Peace Prize, a nod to Barack Obama’s achievement, but with tangible results to justify it.
For Russia, a “responsible” deal would likely include recognition of its control over seized territories, such as Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, and assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO or the EU. Such terms align with Vladimir Putin’s vision of Ukraine as a neutral buffer zone, a strategic concession he could present as a victory despite the war’s staggering costs.
For Ukraine, exhausted by nearly three years of war, freezing the conflict might provide temporary relief. However, any agreement compromising its sovereignty would be untenable.
Kyiv's Non-Negotiables
Ukraine has long aspired to NATO membership. Even if full membership remains elusive, Kyiv would demand NATO-style security guarantees to secure foreign investment for its post-war reconstruction—an effort estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
These demands are not without precedent. In 1994, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal—the third largest in the world—under the Budapest Memorandum, receiving assurances from the US, UK, and Russia that its sovereignty would be protected. Three decades later, those promises feel hollow.
The Minsk accords, which failed to prevent Russia’s 2022 invasion, underscore the dangers of unenforceable agreements. This time, Kyiv will insist on binding commitments, fearing that any weak deal would merely give Russia a strategic pause to regroup and strike again.
The Risks of a Flawed Peace
Russia’s growing ties with nations like North Korea, Iran, and China suggest the potential for further conflict on a larger scale, threatening not just Europe but also the Middle East and Indo-Pacific. A compromised peace deal could embolden Moscow and destabilize global security.
Last year, I argued that granting Ukraine full NATO membership—despite the risks—would be preferable to allowing Russia to claim parts of its territory. To abandon Ukraine now would betray a key ally and send a dangerous message to the world.
Cutting the Gordian Knot
In 333 BC, Alexander the Great famously solved the Gordian knot by slicing through it with his sword rather than attempting to untangle it. Trump, known for his impatience, has pledged to secure peace in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. It’s easy to see why such a bold, “cut-through” approach might appeal to him: it offers the promise of ending a devastating conflict and outshining his predecessor.
Yet, the risk is clear. A hasty, superficial solution could result in an “irresponsible peace deal” that fails to address the underlying issues, leaving Ukraine vulnerable and the region unstable. For a truly lasting peace, Trump will need more than a sword—he’ll need the resolve to untangle the knot.
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