Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine within a single day, but the timing and feasibility of such peace talks remain uncertain. The prospect depends on whether the terms align with the incoming U.S. president's vision and are acceptable to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Despite Trump’s bold assertions, few believe that the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine will appear together for a peace agreement immediately after the inauguration. Key sticking points include whether freezing the current frontlines benefits Russia and whether Putin or Zelensky would even agree to negotiations under current conditions.
"Putin needs to see that continuing the war is too costly," said Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO. Volker, who also served as Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, emphasized that a resolution likely wouldn’t meet all of Putin’s demands or restore all Ukrainian territories. "It’s about stopping the conflict where it is," he noted.
A **Reuters** report from November 20 suggested that Putin might discuss a ceasefire with Trump but was unwilling to concede significant territory. Putin also demanded that Kyiv abandon its NATO aspirations—a condition the Kremlin denies imposing publicly.
Since Russia’s invasion began in February 2022, Putin has annexed four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—but Moscow still doesn’t fully control them. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said any ceasefire allowing Russia to maintain control of these regions wouldn’t mean Kyiv surrenders them permanently. "We need a ceasefire line," Stoltenberg stated, though he acknowledged recovering all occupied territories isn’t realistic in the short term.
Meanwhile, Zelensky has softened his earlier insistence on full territorial restoration. Speaking to **Kyodo News**, he admitted his military lacks the strength to liberate all occupied areas and hinted at openness to "diplomatic solutions."
Putin’s ambitions remain extensive, and a meaningful negotiation may only occur if he perceives Russia’s position as untenable. Despite recent manpower shortages in Kyiv, Russia has made slow but steady territorial gains.
Annexed Territories and Russian Demands
"For Russia, maintaining control of occupied territories and Crimea is crucial to justify the war," said John Foreman, former British defense attaché to Moscow and Kyiv. Putin is also seeking guarantees on Ukraine’s neutrality, NATO exclusion, and lifting of Western sanctions. He reportedly prefers to negotiate directly with the U.S., sidelining Ukraine.
Zelensky has insisted on security assurances from NATO and additional military aid as prerequisites for any talks. Stoltenberg has proposed measures beyond NATO membership to secure Ukraine’s defense.
The Role of the U.S
Trump has named retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as a potential peace envoy. Kellogg’s plan involves freezing the conflict along current frontlines while providing Ukraine with defensive aid to prevent further Russian advances. However, this approach could face resistance from Zelensky, whose leverage depends on continued U.S. and international support.
Doubts over sustained U.S. aid in a second Trump administration and Russia’s battlefield gains weigh heavily on Ukraine’s leadership. Without firm guarantees, Zelensky risks another Russian resurgence.
"Putin might use talks to create confusion or buy time," warned Volker. "This tactic echoes Russia’s approach after its 2014 annexation of Crimea."
Trump could leverage U.S. energy production to undermine Russia economically, Volker suggested. By expanding oil and gas exports, Trump might close gaps in sanctions enforcement without domestic economic fallout.
The incoming administration faces immense challenges in brokering peace, with entrenched positions on all sides. A resolution will require careful balancing of U.S. strategy, Russian demands, and Ukrainian security.
Comments
Post a Comment