For the first time, former President Donald Trump’s chance of winning the election has dropped below 40 percent, according to the latest forecast from FiveThirtyEight, a well-known polling aggregator.
The forecast, released on Tuesday, gave Trump a 39 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding more than a 60 percent chance of victory. This marks a shift in the race, as Trump had been performing closer to Harris, even within the margin of error, before this recent drop.
The FiveThirtyEight model previously showed Trump with a 41 percent chance of winning when it first relaunched after President Joe Biden was replaced on the Democratic ticket by Harris.
His chances had been steadily rising until the ABC debate on September 10. Since then, Harris has gained momentum, particularly in national polls and key swing states. However, the model factors in both polling and regional surveys, so while Harris is polling well in certain Midwestern states like Iowa, it is still unlikely she will win the state.
In addition to polling, the FiveThirtyEight forecast also considers "fundamentals," which are long-term factors like economic conditions that typically influence voting patterns. This approach is similar to the "13 Keys to the White House" method, made famous by historian Allan Lichtman. Lichtman, often called the "Nostradamus of U.S. elections" due to his track record of predictions, is currently forecasting a Harris victory in November.
Despite Harris’ recent gains, Trump’s campaign remains optimistic. An internal memo from the Trump camp revealed that they were satisfied with polling in the week following the ABC debate. A survey of 1,893 likely voters in seven key states showed Trump ahead by 3 percentage points.
On Monday, Harris received additional good news from Pennsylvania, considered a crucial battleground state. A poll showed her leading Trump 48.6 percent to 45.6 percent, her best result there this month.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight who now runs his blog "Silver Bulletin," presented a different outlook. His model had Trump with a 60 percent chance of winning and Harris with only 38 percent. Silver cautioned against reading too much into early post-debate polls, advocating for a more tempered approach.
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