Experts and officials in Kyiv believe that Vladimir Putin faces an ultimatum in his invasion of Ukraine as the conflict continues to strain Russia's military and undermine domestic confidence. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia aims to secure a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026, before anticipated economic and military constraints significantly impact its ability to sustain the war effort.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, highlighted at an international conference in Kyiv that 2025 will be pivotal for Russia, which is struggling with personnel shortages and recruitment issues. A recent analysis by the Rand Corporation indicates that Russia's high-casualty tactics and poor treatment of military personnel have diminished soldiers' willingness to fight and eroded public support for the war.
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported that Russia has lost approximately 635,880 troops since the invasion began in February 2022. Although these figures might be inflated, the substantial casualties have led Moscow to implement more aggressive recruitment strategies.
In late July, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced a one-time payment of 1.9 million Rubles ($20,793) for new soldiers, with the Chelyabinsk region offering doubled payments of 705,000 Rubles in mid-July.
ISW interprets these measures as signs of mounting difficulties for the Russian military in maintaining personnel levels. Budanov noted that Ukraine's incursions into Russia's Kursk region and strikes on Russian territory have undermined the perception of Russian invincibility. He asserted that the "myth" of Russia's invulnerability was shattered by the first explosions in Moscow.
Budanov warned that Putin must either initiate another mobilization effort, as he did with military reservists in September 2022 or scale back operations in Ukraine. Failure to secure a victory could also jeopardize Russia's status as a global superpower for the next three decades, leaving China and the USA as the primary global powers.
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